According to recent media reports, the Group of Ministers (GoM) on GST rate rationalization may recommend sweeping changes to tax rates across 148 items, including the introduction of a new 35% GST rate for tobacco and aerated beverages. If approved in the GST Council meeting scheduled for December 21, 2024, these proposals could bring significant revenue gains for the government while impacting consumer behavior and industry dynamics. Though CBIC has clarified that these changes are yet to be formally proposed, here’s a detailed look at what they are and their broader implications.

Analysis of the Existing Scenario

Under the current GST regime, a four-tier tax structure (5%, 12%, 18%, and 28%) applies, with additional cesses on luxury and demerit goods. Tobacco products and aerated beverages are among the most heavily taxed items due to their classification as “sin goods.” These high taxes aim to discourage consumption while generating significant revenue.

However, the taxation framework for other items, such as textiles and luxury goods, has been criticized for being inconsistent. For instance, the existing GST structure for textiles applies a 5% tax on items priced below ₹1,000 but increases to 12% for anything above ₹1,000. This structure has often been viewed as inadequate for distinguishing between everyday essentials and high-value luxury items.

In the case of luxury goods like high-end wristwatches and shoes, the current 18% rate does not fully align with the principles of taxing non-essential, high-value items at higher rates. Additionally, essential services like insurance premiums remain taxed at a relatively high 18%, limiting accessibility for lower-income groups.

Key Proposals by the GoM

The GoM’s report outlines several rate adjustments, focusing on increasing taxes on demerit and luxury goods while reducing GST on essential items. Below are the key recommendations:

Tobacco and Aerated Beverages

  • New Tax Rate: A proposed “special rate” of 35% GST for all tobacco products and aerated beverages.

  • Current Tax Structure:

    • Tobacco products: 28% GST plus a compensation cess of 11% to 290%.

    • Tobacco leaves: Taxed at 5% under the reverse charge mechanism.

    • Aerated beverages: 28% GST with an additional 12% cess, irrespective of sugar or fruit content.

Textile Sector

  • Revised Tax Structure:

    • Up to ₹1,500: 5% GST.

    • ₹1,500–₹10,000: 18% GST.

    • Above ₹10,000: 28% GST, aligning with luxury items.

  • Current Tax Structure:

    • Up to ₹1,000: 5% GST.

    • Above ₹1,000: 12% GST.

Luxury Goods

  • High-end items, such as wristwatches and shoes, are proposed to see an increase from 18% to 28%:

    • Wristwatches: Above ₹25,000.

    • Shoes: Over ₹15,000.

Essential Items

  • Reduced GST Rates:

    • Bicycles priced below ₹10,000: 12% to 5%.

    • Exercise books: 12% to 5%.

    • Packaged drinking water (over 20 liters): 18% to 5%.

Insurance Premiums

Implications of Proposed Changes

Impact on Tobacco and Aerated Beverage Industries

The proposed 35% GST rate on tobacco and aerated beverages signifies a steep increase that is likely to impact consumption patterns and industry revenues. While the higher tax aligns with the government’s public health objectives, the burden of compliance and potential price hikes could challenge businesses in these sectors. Additionally, there is a risk of increased smuggling and counterfeit products if the price differential with non-taxed alternatives becomes too significant.

Effects on the Textile Industry

The revised tax slabs for textiles aim to more effectively distinguish between essential and luxury products. By retaining a 5% GST rate for items up to ₹1,500, the GoM seeks to protect affordability for the common consumer. However, the steep jump to 18% for mid-range products and 28% for high-end textiles could discourage consumption in these categories, potentially affecting manufacturers and retailers.

Luxury Goods Taxation

Increasing GST on high-end wristwatches and shoes to 28% aligns with global practices of heavily taxing luxury items. This move is likely to boost revenue collection but could result in a decrease in sales of these products. Brands catering to high-income consumers may adopt this approach by absorbing some of the tax burden or repositioning their offerings.

Relief for Essential Items

The proposed GST reductions for items like bicycles, exercise books, and large water packs aim to relieve everyday consumers. This could stimulate demand in these sectors, benefiting manufacturers and sellers of these goods.

Insurance Sector Reforms

A reduction in GST on health and life insurance premiums would significantly make these services more accessible. Lower taxes could increase insurance penetration, particularly among lower—and middle-income groups, aligning with broader social welfare objectives.

Broader Economic and Social Implications

The GoM’s recommendations are a step toward a more rationalized and equitable GST framework. The introduction of a 35% tax rate for demerit goods highlights the government’s intent to curb consumption while boosting revenue. Similarly, aligning luxury goods with higher tax rates and providing relief on essential items reflect a balanced approach to addressing consumer affordability and fiscal goals.

However, these changes may come with challenges. For instance, the sharp tax increases on mid-range and high-end textiles could disrupt the industry, especially smaller manufacturers and retailers. Similarly, sectors like tobacco and aerated beverages may see reduced volumes, affecting employment and supply chains.

The success of these proposals will depend on their implementation and the government’s ability to address potential issues such as compliance burdens, revenue leakage, and inflationary pressures. Stakeholder engagement and clear communication will be critical to ensuring a smooth transition.

The GoM’s proposed GST reforms represent a bold step toward streamlining India’s tax structure and boosting revenue collection. By addressing inconsistencies and focusing on equitable taxation, the recommendations aim to create a more balanced and efficient framework. While the proposals promise significant benefits, they also demand careful implementation to mitigate potential disruptions in key sectors. The final decision by the GST Council on December 21 will determine the direction of these transformative changes.